Pre-tourney Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#87
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#75
Pace75.0#68
Improvement+0.0#179

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#81
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#40
Layup/Dunks-0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#139
Freethrows+0.8#124
Improvement+1.8#95

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#109
First Shot+2.4#99
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#168
Layups/Dunks+0.6#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#1
Freethrows-4.9#350
Improvement-1.8#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round20.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen4.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.8% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2015 201   Eastern Kentucky W 78-59 87%     1 - 0 +13.5 -6.7 +18.5
  Nov 21, 2015 184   Western Michigan W 80-76 84%     2 - 0 -0.3 -2.9 +2.2
  Nov 28, 2015 155   @ East Tennessee St. W 94-73 61%     3 - 0 +24.6 +10.5 +11.8
  Dec 12, 2015 70   @ Georgetown L 82-87 34%     3 - 1 +5.9 +3.4 +3.2
  Dec 16, 2015 185   @ East Carolina L 73-78 69%     3 - 2 -3.5 -6.8 +3.7
  Dec 19, 2015 227   @ Radford L 67-69 76%     3 - 3 -3.0 -7.8 +4.9
  Dec 22, 2015 282   Utah Valley W 102-77 91%     4 - 3 +17.1 +9.8 +3.6
  Dec 23, 2015 253   UMKC W 76-56 87%     5 - 3 +14.5 -1.2 +15.6
  Dec 28, 2015 296   Campbell W 106-83 95%     6 - 3 +11.2 +10.0 -2.2
  Dec 31, 2015 230   Drexel W 75-63 89%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +5.0 -2.3 +7.0
  Jan 02, 2016 127   Northeastern L 63-65 75%     7 - 4 1 - 1 -2.4 -1.8 -0.9
  Jan 07, 2016 140   @ Towson L 60-76 57%     7 - 5 1 - 2 -11.3 -8.1 -4.1
  Jan 09, 2016 270   @ Delaware W 85-67 84%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +14.2 +6.1 +7.4
  Jan 14, 2016 156   @ Elon W 91-82 62%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +12.4 +12.7 -1.0
  Jan 16, 2016 92   William & Mary W 97-94 OT 64%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +6.0 +8.4 -2.9
  Jan 21, 2016 270   Delaware W 79-70 93%     11 - 5 5 - 2 -0.7 +0.0 -0.7
  Jan 24, 2016 230   @ Drexel W 77-71 77%     12 - 5 6 - 2 +4.9 +2.2 +2.5
  Jan 28, 2016 97   @ James Madison W 78-73 42%     13 - 5 7 - 2 +13.6 +4.7 +8.5
  Jan 30, 2016 124   College of Charleston W 65-55 74%     14 - 5 8 - 2 +9.9 +4.4 +6.4
  Feb 04, 2016 96   @ Hofstra W 70-67 42%     15 - 5 9 - 2 +11.7 +0.5 +11.2
  Feb 06, 2016 127   @ Northeastern W 90-73 54%     16 - 5 10 - 2 +22.4 +15.9 +5.9
  Feb 11, 2016 156   Elon W 86-82 80%     17 - 5 11 - 2 +1.5 +6.1 -4.8
  Feb 13, 2016 97   James Madison W 78-68 64%     18 - 5 12 - 2 +12.8 +5.2 +7.3
  Feb 18, 2016 92   @ William & Mary L 69-87 41%     18 - 6 12 - 3 -9.2 -0.2 -9.5
  Feb 20, 2016 124   @ College of Charleston W 59-55 OT 53%     19 - 6 13 - 3 +9.7 -7.2 +16.7
  Feb 25, 2016 96   Hofstra L 69-70 64%     19 - 7 13 - 4 +1.8 -1.4 +3.2
  Feb 27, 2016 140   Towson W 74-68 77%     20 - 7 14 - 4 +4.9 +0.9 +4.0
  Mar 05, 2016 124   College of Charleston W 66-64 64%     21 - 7 +4.8 +4.8 +0.1
  Mar 06, 2016 127   Northeastern W 73-70 65%     22 - 7 +5.5 +7.3 -1.5
  Mar 07, 2016 96   Hofstra W 80-73 OT 53%     23 - 7 +12.8 +7.1 +5.5
Projected Record 23.0 - 7.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 15.0 52.2 31.2 1.4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 15.0 52.2 31.2 1.4